The Military Crisis: The Fallout from China’s General Purge

The senior ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are in tatters.

The weekend purging of China’s top general, Zhang Youxia, and another senior military officer, Gen Liu Zhenli, has left serious questions about what triggered the elite power struggles unfolding in the country—and what this means for China’s warfighting capacity, whether it be any ambition to take Taiwan by force or engage in another major regional conflict.

Zhang, 75, was vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC)—the Communist Party group headed by the country’s leader Xi Jinping, which controls the armed forces.

The CMC, usually made up of around seven people, has now been whittled down to just two members—Xi and Gen Zhang Shengmin.

All others have been taken down in the “anti-corruption” crackdown following previous waves of detention.

The CMC is responsible for controlling millions of military personnel. It is so powerful that being chairman of this body was the single position held by Deng Xiaoping as absolute ruler of China.

That only Xi and one CMC general remain is unprecedented, according to Lyle Morris from the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“The PLA is in disarray,” he told the BBC, adding that China’s military now has “a major leadership void”.

Asked what was really driving the culling of so many top generals, he said: “There are a lot of rumors floating around. We don’t know, at this point, what is true and what is false… but it is certainly bad for Xi Jinping, for his leadership and control over the PLA.”

Speculation and Political Dynamics

Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian from the National University of Singapore also said he was not sure what the real reason was for Zhang’s downfall but that there was a lot of speculation about it.

“Everything from leaking nuclear secrets to the United States to plotting a coup and factional infighting. There are even rumors of a gunfight in Beijing,” he said.

“But Zhang and Liu’s downfall along with the wild speculation highlight two things: that Xi remains unassailable and there are significant limits to information in Beijing which fuels uncertainty and feeds this speculation.”

The official announcement that Zhang and Liu were “under investigation” said that they were accused of “serious violations of discipline and law”, which is a euphemism for corruption.

Long-term Implications for China’s Military

The specific allegations being made against all of these generals have not been released to the public and may never be. However, that they have been named as under investigation almost certainly means being given a custodial sentence as a minimum.

The targeting of the generals may be about corruption, but it may also be about power politics, given how these purges have panned out in the past.

While the PLA had a corruption problem when Xi came to power, Xi has also been accused of using his anti-corruption drive to eliminate political rivals or those showing anything less than full loyalty.

The purging of the most senior generals also brings scrutiny on the next layer of officers who may be wondering: who is next?

Conclusion

The ramifications of this military purge extend beyond immediate leadership changes. A significant leadership void creates long-term challenges for Xi Jinping, as the PLA grapples with instability amid rising pressures on Taiwan. While the purge does not alter the CCP’s ambitions concerning Taiwan, it may influence operational decisions, ultimately concentrating more power in Xi’s hands.

FAQs